Written by:
Future Group
23 April 2026
Australia is one of the world’s largest gas exporters. Yet when it comes to the returns flowing back to Australians, the gap between what we could be earning and what we actually receive is impossible to ignore.
Future Group recently commissioned independent modelling to test a simple idea. What if Australia introduced a broad based 25% levy on gas exports. The results point to a significant opportunity to strengthen the budget, lower energy costs and invest in the systems we need for the future.
“An export levy makes it more attractive to sell gas to Australians. This policy will bolster the budget by $17 billion in the first year and reduce the wholesale price of electricity by up to 15%,” Future Group CEO Simon Sheikh explains.
“It’s a no-brainer.”
Right now, Australia captures far less value from its gas exports than comparable countries. Norway captures close to 60% of petroleum resource rents. Qatar captures around 35%. The United Kingdom sits near 40%.
Australia captures just 6.9%.
This is not a marginal difference. It is a structural imbalance that leaves Australians missing out on billions in public revenue each year. At a time when households and businesses are under pressure, and when governments need to invest heavily in energy security, that gap matters.
A 25% export levy begins to close it. The modelling shows it could generate up to $17 billion in its first year alone.
This is not only about government revenue. It is also about how our energy system works for Australians.
An export levy changes incentives. It makes it more attractive for gas producers to sell domestically rather than overseas. That shift increases local supply and puts downward pressure on prices.
The modelling shows wholesale electricity costs could fall by up to 15% compared to a no levy scenario.
For households and businesses, that would be a real relief.
We often hear that new taxes risk undermining investment or damaging the viability of projects. The modelling does not support that claim. Existing LNG projects remain highly profitable under a 25% levy. The expected reduction in returns is modest, around 2% on average.
Another common concern is that a levy could disrupt trade relationships or reduce export volumes. Again, the evidence points in a different direction.
A levy on export revenue does not restrict volumes, cancel contracts or limit production. Prices for Australian gas exports are largely set by regional and global markets. That means the cost of the levy is absorbed by producers rather than passed on to international buyers. Australia would remain a reliable supplier of LNG to the region.
Demand for LNG in the Asia Pacific is expected to peak within the next decade. That means the window to secure a fair return on Australia’s gas exports is finite. Once that opportunity passes, it cannot be recovered.
Acting now allows Australia to capture value while it is still available and use it to fund the transition to a more secure and sustainable energy system.
The revenue from a gas export levy is not an end in itself. It is a means to invest in what comes next.
Australia needs to accelerate the shift to domestic energy security. That includes electrifying transport, strengthening supply chains and building resilient industrial systems that are not exposed to global fuel shocks.
These investments in our future require capital. A gas export levy provides a clear and immediate way to fund them while also delivering near term relief through lower energy costs.
